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US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31?

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Today

last 24 hours

Yes23¢▲1¢today

2 big moves · 10 stories · 3 posts

▲4¢ move · Oct 4, 2:14 PM UTC

Oct 3, 6:43 PM UTClivechecked 6:43 PM UTC

About this market

The longer view

▼5¢ over 4 days

▲5¢ · Thu

Oct 1today

Resolves

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

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What landed, newest first

Walter Komarek @komarglobal 23m
Not from a known source
🇮🇷🇺🇸⚡️ — Iran has set seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including an end to U.S. military action, sanctions, and the naval blockade, according to the Iranian Parliament Speaker. The demands also include lifting the ban on Iranian oil exports and releasing https://t.co/NqhhwWCjlb
Sweat saw it 17 min after it was posted
Down 1¢ in 2 h 9 min, inside the usual range.
foxnews.com2h
Life INSIDE Iran: US blockade CRIPPLES economy
Read on foxnews.com
Sweat saw it 1 h 49 min after it was published
Top Stock Alerts @TopStockAlerts1 3h
Not from a known source
The Strait of Hormuz will not open until Iran’s seven conditions based on the Islamabad Memorandum are met, and Iran will not regulate its national security with tweets from American officials,” Iranian state media agency Nour News quoted Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher
Sweat saw it 3 h 37 min after it was posted
Down 1¢ in 34 min, inside the usual range.
▲4¢ in 12 min · 2:14 to 2:26 PM UTC
4× this market's usual 12-minute move
Up 1¢ in 1 h 14 min, inside the usual range.
aa.com.tr5h
Iran says Strait of Hormuz main focus of talks to end war with US - Anadolu Ajansı
Read on aa.com.tr
A
aa.com.tr8h
‘There is no military solution’ to end war, Iran tells US - Anadolu Ajansı
Read on aa.com.tr
2 outlets on this story; the last at 3:30 PM UTC
Also reported by
- The Times of Israel · Iran says no military solution to conflict with US as talks remain at dead end
Up 1¢ in 3 h 12 min, inside the usual range.
TRENDING ➞ 911 @911NewsBreaks 11h
Not from a known source
BREAKING: 🚨 Top Iranian negotiator says the Strait will remain closed until the United States meets all "seven conditions based on the Islamabad Memorandum." [MOU] FULL: [MOU] Memorandum of Understanding Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of
Sweat saw it 11 h 19 min after it was posted
responsiblestatecraft.org12h
Why Trump should welcome China's help to end the Iran war
Read on responsiblestatecraft.org
Sweat saw it 4 h 25 min after it was published
juancole.com14h
The Iran War can only End if Israel and the US Stop trying to Strangle Iran - Informed Comment
Read on juancole.com
Down 1¢ in 1 h 18 min, inside the usual range.
ua.news15h
Trump says war with Iran could end very soon — Dawn
Read on ua.news
Sweat saw it 4 h 3 min after it was published
middleeasteye.net18h
Hegseth: US blockade of Hormuz ironclad, Iran should make right choice
Read on middleeasteye.net
Quiet for 1 h 36 min. Nothing moved.
turkiyetoday.com20h
Iraq's Najaf airport to resume Iran flights after US sanctions waiver
Read on turkiyetoday.com
Sweat saw it 6 h 21 min after it was published
Quiet for 39 min. Nothing moved.
The Jerusalem Post @jpost.com20h
Pete Hegseth warns Iran will 'never' get nuclear bomb, touts Hormuz blockade
Read on The Jerusalem Post , jpost.com
▲3¢ in 12 min · Yesterday 9:00 to 9:12 PM UTC
3× this market's usual 12-minute move
The Jerusalem Post @jpost.com1d
Iraq seeks workaround for US sanctions on Iranian airlines
Read on The Jerusalem Post , jpost.com
Sweat saw it 1 h 38 min after it was published
Quiet for 7 h 37 min. Nothing moved.
indiatimes.com1d
'Iran Was Doing Wonderfully': Trump Mistakenly Reveals US Lost War?'Nobody Wants, War Will End Soon'
Read on indiatimes.com
Quiet for 40 min. Nothing moved.
The Jerusalem Post @jpost.com1d
Iran, Yemen on agenda as secret Camp David meeting led by Donald Trump, JD Vance
Read on The Jerusalem Post , jpost.com
Quiet for 45 min. Nothing moved.
iranintl.com1d
Live - US weighs next moves in Iran war Trump says will end after midterms
Read on iranintl.com
Sweat saw it 1 h 25 min after it was published
Investing.com1d
Trump says Iran war could end after U.S. elections as Hormuz tensions persist
Read on Investing.com
Sweat saw it 2 h 49 min after it was published
Down 1¢ in 3 h 21 min, inside the usual range.
ncrius.org1d
U.S. Expands Iran Sanctions, Targeting IRGC-Linked Industries - NCRI-US
Read on ncrius.org
W
winknews.com2d
Trump vows Iran war will end "right after the election" or sooner, as 9,000 troops head to Mideast
Read on winknews.com
2 outlets on this story; the last yesterday at 7:05 PM UTC
Also reported by
- latintimes.com · Trump Vows Iran Ends "Right After the Election" as the U.S. Sends 9,000 More Troops to the Middle East
iranwire.com2d
US Sanctions Iran’s Rail Transit, Automotive, and Steel Industries
Read on iranwire.com
Quiet for 2 h 20 min. Nothing moved.
tradewindsnews.com2d
Iran tanker loadings plunge to zero for first time in war as US blockade strangles Kharg Island exports
Read on tradewindsnews.com
The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com2d
Pentagon prepares for potential surge of naval forces in Middle East
Read on The Washington Post , washingtonpost.com
J
japantimes.co.jp2d
Iran offers to allow nuclear inspectors if sanctions are eased
Read on japantimes.co.jp
2 outlets on this story; the last Fri at 8:05 AM UTC
Also reported by
- rigzone.com · Iran Wants Sanctions Eased to Allow Back Nuclear Inspectors
Sweat saw it 1 h 49 min after it was published
FT
Financial Times @ft.com2d
US deploys thousands of troops to Middle East as Donald Trump weighs strikes on Iran - Financial Times
Read on Financial Times , ft.com
2 outlets on this story, including Financial Times; the last Fri at 8:03 AM UTC
Also reported by
- themedialine.org · US Sends 3rd Aircraft Carrier, Thousands More Troops to Middle East as President Trump Weighs Iran Strategy
Sweat saw it 6 h 2 min after it was published
R
Reuters @reuters.com2d
US sanctions target Iran's auto, rail sectors as blockade chokes ship lanes
Read on Reuters , reuters.com
2 outlets on this story, including Reuters; the last Fri at 11:05 AM UTC
Also reported by
- NewsNation · US sanctions Iran’s auto and rail sectors amid Yemen escalation
Sweat saw it 6 h 15 min after it was published
unitedagainstnucleariran.com2d
Iran Shipping Update – October 1, 2026
Read on unitedagainstnucleariran.com
Sweat saw it 9 h 2 min after it was published
H
The Hill @thehill.com2d
Trump: Iran will ‘either sign a very fair deal’ or cease to exist
Read on The Hill , thehill.com
2 outlets on this story, including The Hill; the last Fri at 10:00 PM UTC
Also reported by
- abc3340.com · President Trump issues ultimatum to Iran: Sign a peace deal or cease to exist - WBMA
Sweat saw it 8 h 9 min after it was published
▲4¢ in 20 min · Thu 6:24 to 6:44 PM UTC
4× this market's usual 12-minute move
▼3¢ in 13 min · Thu 5:50 to 6:03 PM UTC
3× this market's usual 12-minute move
C
CNBC @cnbc.com3d
Treasury sanctions operation targets Iran's auto, rail industries in latest economic attack
Read on CNBC , cnbc.com
2 outlets on this story, including CNBC; the last Thu at 6:40 PM UTC
Also reported by
- iranintl.com · US targets Iran auto, rail and metals sectors in new sanctions blitz
Sweat saw it 9 h 56 min after it was published
▲5¢ in 13 min · Thu 4:33 to 4:46 PM UTC
5× this market's usual 12-minute move
Bloomberg @bloomberg.com3d
Iran Loaded No Oil Onto Tankers Last Month as US Blockade Bites
Read on Bloomberg , bloomberg.com
Sweat saw it 16 h 27 min after it was published
▲3¢ in 13 min · Thu 8:24 to 8:37 AM UTC
3× this market's usual 12-minute move
▼3¢ in 18 min · Thu 7:00 to 7:18 AM UTC
U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM 3d
USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) sails in the Arabian Sea supporting enforcement of the U.S. blockade against Iran. As of Sept. 30, CENTCOM forces have redirected 125 commercial vessels to ensure strict compliance. https://t.co/B03GIwoydn
Sweat saw it 4 days after it was posted
CNBC @cnbc.com4d
Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief; Tehran receives U.S. proposal following Qatar talks
Read on CNBC , cnbc.com
Sweat saw it 2 days after it was published
U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM 6d
🚫 CLAIM: A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander said today that Iran has full control over the Strait of Hormuz through Iran’s “navy.” This is FALSE. ✅ FACT: Iran has no navy because American forces sank it. And Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz as https://t.co/n1sE4goDY1
Sweat saw it 6 days after it was posted

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31?

Today

Hold a side here?

Life INSIDE Iran: US blockade CRIPPLES economy

The Strait of Hormuz will not open until Iran’s seven conditions based on the Islamabad Memorandum are met, and Iran will not regulate its national security with tweets from American officials,” Iranian state media agency Nour News quoted Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher

Iran says Strait of Hormuz main focus of talks to end war with US - Anadolu Ajansı

‘There is no military solution’ to end war, Iran tells US - Anadolu Ajansı

BREAKING: 🚨 Top Iranian negotiator says the Strait will remain closed until the United States meets all "seven conditions based on the Islamabad Memorandum." [MOU] FULL: [MOU] Memorandum of Understanding Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of

Why Trump should welcome China's help to end the Iran war

The Iran War can only End if Israel and the US Stop trying to Strangle Iran - Informed Comment

Trump says war with Iran could end very soon — Dawn

Hegseth: US blockade of Hormuz ironclad, Iran should make right choice

Iraq's Najaf airport to resume Iran flights after US sanctions waiver

Pete Hegseth warns Iran will 'never' get nuclear bomb, touts Hormuz blockade

Iraq seeks workaround for US sanctions on Iranian airlines

'Iran Was Doing Wonderfully': Trump Mistakenly Reveals US Lost War?'Nobody Wants, War Will End Soon'

Iran, Yemen on agenda as secret Camp David meeting led by Donald Trump, JD Vance

Live - US weighs next moves in Iran war Trump says will end after midterms

Trump says Iran war could end after U.S. elections as Hormuz tensions persist

U.S. Expands Iran Sanctions, Targeting IRGC-Linked Industries - NCRI-US

Trump vows Iran war will end "right after the election" or sooner, as 9,000 troops head to Mideast

US Sanctions Iran’s Rail Transit, Automotive, and Steel Industries

Iran tanker loadings plunge to zero for first time in war as US blockade strangles Kharg Island exports

Pentagon prepares for potential surge of naval forces in Middle East

Iran offers to allow nuclear inspectors if sanctions are eased

US deploys thousands of troops to Middle East as Donald Trump weighs strikes on Iran - Financial Times

US sanctions target Iran's auto, rail sectors as blockade chokes ship lanes

Iran Shipping Update – October 1, 2026

Trump: Iran will ‘either sign a very fair deal’ or cease to exist

Treasury sanctions operation targets Iran's auto, rail industries in latest economic attack

Iran Loaded No Oil Onto Tankers Last Month as US Blockade Bites

USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) sails in the Arabian Sea supporting enforcement of the U.S. blockade against Iran. As of Sept. 30, CENTCOM forces have redirected 125 commercial vessels to ensure strict compliance. https://t.co/B03GIwoydn

Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief; Tehran receives U.S. proposal following Qatar talks